El empleo y el desempleo en Cuba: impacto del envejecimiento, la crisis económica y la unificación monetaria

Abstract

Cuba has the lowest rate of population growth in the American continent and one of the lowest in the world, which have reduced (in absolute figures) the economically active population and employment while increasing the proportion of the elderly population. In addition, with a very high number of retirees and pensioners, the ratio of active workers related to the passive population has declined, which have adverse effects on the financial sustainability of public pensions. Furthermore, in the last 15 years, Cuba has had the lowest rate of open unemployment in Latin America and among the lowest in the world, but there is a high rate of “disguised” unemployment (unneeded workers in the state sector) leading to low labour productivity and real wages. Due to the severe current economic crisis and monetary unification started in 2021, many state enterprises will endure losses and open unemployment will rise, however, if the unification program is properly implemented, in the long-run there will be improvement in employment, productivity and real wages. In order to provide jobs to the dismissed employees in the state sector, it is essential to expand the non-state sector (particularly the private one/self-employment work) that have higher labour productivity and real wages; this sector has expanded since 2011, but faces bureaucratic red tape that obstruct further growth. Ends with conclusions and recommendations to alleviate these problems.

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